In January a sales manager estimates that there is only a 30% chance that the sales of a new product will exceed one million units in the coming year.  However, he is then handed the results of a sales forecast.  This suggests that the sales will exceed one million units.  The probability that this indication will be given when sales will exceed a million units is 0.8.  However, the probability that the forecast will give this indication when sales will not exceed a million units is 0.4.  Revise the sales manager's estimate in the light of the sales forecast.