From the e-Activity, predict the performance of the DOW for the next two years. Provide support for your prediction.
Many investors follow these recommendations and often pay the price for doing so:
- Some of those making these predictions have stellar credentials, the economy will avoid a recession, and the stock market will have another winning year in 2013 and that "financial stocks, which have plummeted 18 percent so far this year.
- Financials underperformed all market sectors, losing 56.95 percent.
- The future with more accuracy than you would expect from random chance.
-The overall accuracy of the group based on both raw forecast count and on the average of forecaster accuracies (weighting each individual equally) were 48 percent —which is about what you would expect from tossing a coin. (Solin, 2011)
Life-cycle investing refers to a term which includes a range of ways of investing that match strategy to the stage an investor has reached in their life.
The classic approach to life-cycle investing starts with a comparatively high risk, high return strategy that gradually moves to low risk, low return over the years. It can be roughly divided into four phases:
References
Solin, D. (2011). Market Predictions Can be Harmful to Your Wealth - US News. US News & World Report. Retrieved 12 January 2015, from http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/On-Retirement/2011/12/01/market-predictions-can-be-harmful-to-your-wealth
discussion wk1
•From the e-Activity, predict the performance of the DOW for the next two years. Provide support for your prediction.
Week 1 e-Activity .•Go to Yahoo Finance and find the two-year trend for the DOW industrial average. Be prepared to discuss.
•Analyze the factors that influence investment decisions at different stages in an investor’s life cycle, and make a recommendation at which stage the average investor should consider financial investments. Provide support for your recommendation.
HOMEWORK WK1
•Chapter 1: Problems 5(a-d), 7, 9, and 12
5. During the past five years, you owned two stocks that had the following annual rates of
return:
Year Stock T Stock B
1 0.19 0.08
2 0.08 0.03
3 −0.12 −0.09
4 −0.03 0.02
5 0.15 0.04
a. Compute the arithmetic mean annual rate of return for each stock. Which stock is
most desirable by this measure?
b. Compute the standard deviation of the annual rate of return for each stock. (Use
Chapter 1 Appendix if necessary.) By this measure, which is the preferable stock?
c. Compute the coefficient of variation for each stock. (Use the Chapter 1 Appendix if
necessary.) By this relative measure of risk, which stock is preferable?
d. Compute the geometric mean rate of return for each stock. Discuss the difference
between the arithmetic mean return and the geometric mean return for each stock.
Discuss the differences in the mean returns relative to the standard deviation of the
return for each stock.
7. A stockbroker calls you and suggests that you invest in the Lauren Computer Company.
After analyzing the firm’s annual report and other material, you believe that the distribution
of expected rates of return is as follows:
LAUREN COMPUTER CO.
Possible Rate of Return Probability
−0.60 0.05
−0.30 0.20
−0.10 0.10
0.20 0.30
0.40 0.20
0.80 0.15
Compute the expected return [E(Ri)] on Lauren Computer stock.
9- During the past year, you had a portfolio that contained U.S. government T-bills, longterm
government bonds, and common stocks. The rates of return on each of them were
as follows:
U.S. government T-bills 5.50%
U.S. government long-term bonds 7.50
U.S. common stocks 11.60
During the year, the consumer price index, which measures the rate of inflation, went
from 160 to 172 (1982 – 1984 = 100). Compute the rate of inflation during this year.
Compute the real rates of return on each of the investments in your portfolio based on
the inflation rate.
12. Assume that the consensus required rate of return on common stocks is 14 percent. In
addition, you read in Fortune that the expected rate of inflation is 5 percent and the
estimated long-term real growth rate of the economy is 3 percent. What interest rate would you expect on U.S. government T-bills? What is the approximate risk premium for
common stocks implied by these data?
•Chapter 2: Problems 4(a-b), 5(a-b), and 6(a-b)
4. a. Someone in the 36 percent tax bracket can earn 9 percent annually on her investments
in a tax-exempt IRA account. What will be the value of a one-time $10,000 investment
in 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
b. Suppose the preceding 9 percent return is taxable rather than tax-deferred and the taxes
are paid annually. What will be the after-tax value of her $10,000 investment after 5, 10,
and 20 years?
5. a. Someone in the 15 percent tax bracket can earn 10 percent on his investments in a taxexempt
IRA account. What will be the value of a $10,000 investment in 5 years? 10
years? 20 years?
b. Suppose the preceding 10 percent return is taxable rather than tax-deferred. What will
be the after-tax value of his $10,000 investment after 5, 10, and 20 years?
6. Assume that the rate of inflation during all these periods was 3 percent a year. Compute
the real value of the two tax-deferred portfolios in problems 4a and 5a.